Former President Barack Obama holds an 11-point lead over President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2028 matchup, according to a new poll. Neither man is constitutionally eligible to run for president.

Why It Matters

Talk of Trump seeking a third term has circulated since the start of his second term last January, stoked by the president and some in his orbit. “Trump 2028” merchandise went on sale in early 2025. As some allies urged him to run again in 2028, Democrats floated the idea of Obama’s return. Obama was first elected as president in 2008, and reelected in 2012, serving until 2017.

The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution bars a president from serving more than two terms. Congress would have to amend the Constitution for former two-term presidents to be eligible to run again.

What To Know

A Research Co. poll of 1,002 adults conducted January 13-15 found that if both presidents were to run for the Oval Office in 2028, Obama would lead the matchup 44 percent to 33 percent.

The poll found that Obama would lead with Latino and Black voters, 57 percent and 69 percent, respectively, while Trump leads among white voters with 41 percent and Fox News watchers with 55 percent.  The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

The 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice. To allow a former two-term president to run again, the Constitution would have to be amended—a step that would require approval by two-thirds of the House and Senate and ratification by three-fourths of the states.

The poll found that 34 percent of participants support allowing a president to serve three terms, while nearly 60 percent are opposed.

In January, Democrat Tom Umberg, a California state senator, introduced a bill that would ensure Trump would be excluded from the ballot in the 2028 presidential election. The bill would allow the California secretary of state to request proof of a candidate's eligibility and exclude candidates from the ballot if they are constitutionally ineligible.

Read more here: Newsweek